2023年业绩同比预计大增，关注储能及新建煤矿，维持“增持”评级
企(qi)业发布新(xin)闻(wen)2024年(nian)(nian)报电(dian)影预(yu)告(gao)，2024年(nian)(nian)满(man)足归(gui)(gui)母(mu)纯(chun)的(de)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入(ru)润(run)(run)22.3-23.三亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)金，同期相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+16.8%-22.0%；满(man)足扣非归(gui)(gui)母(mu)纯(chun)的(de)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入(ru)润(run)(run)22.8-23.8亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)金，同期相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+37.0%-43.0%。单Q4看来，2023Q4满(man)足归(gui)(gui)母(mu)纯(chun)的(de)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入(ru)润(run)(run)6.1-7.3亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)金，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)-0.8%-+15.5%，满(man)足扣非后(hou)归(gui)(gui)母(mu)纯(chun)的(de)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入(ru)润(run)(run)6.6-7.3000万(wan)美(mei)金，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)+8.1%-24.4%。企(qi)业业绩(ji)报告(gao)预(yu)增(zeng)(zeng)主因(yin)山西(xi)(xi)新(xin)疆煤炭销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)业务领域产供商品销(xiao)(xiao)量同期相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)曾加(jia)，电(dian)量的(de)使用销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)业务领域发动机煤选(xuan)择成本价同期相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)的(de)降低，某一(yi)(yi)山西(xi)(xi)新(xin)疆煤炭收费保(bao)(bao)持相(xiang)(xiang)对(dui)的(de)位高且(qie)幅值缩窄。你(ni)们达到2023-2025年(nian)(nian)营利分析预(yu)测，保(bao)(bao)守估(gu)计2023-2025年(nian)(nian)满(man)足归(gui)(gui)母(mu)纯(chun)的(de)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)收入(ru)润(run)(run)23.0/25.1/26.3000万(wan)美(mei)金，同期相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+20.4%/+9.3%/+5.8%；EPS为(wei)0.10/0.11/0.1十元，使用某一(yi)(yi)股票走(zou)势PE为(wei)13.3/12.2/11.5倍，达到“加(jia)持”评分。
煤炭产销增长叠加电力成本降低，业绩改善显著
媒碳(tan)项目(mu)：单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)202两年媒碳(tan)项目(mu)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)量现身(shen)生(sheng)长(zhang)，至(zhi)(zhi)少(shao)前(qian)三(san)第(di)二第(di)一(yi)(yi)月(yue)度(du)精煤产(chan)/销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)能力(li)为(wei)954/959万吨级，提高(gao)增(zeng)长(zhang)率+15.7%/+17.7%，保守(shou)估(gu)计四、第(di)二第(di)一(yi)(yi)月(yue)度(du)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)量与三(san)第(di)二第(di)一(yi)(yi)月(yue)度(du)变换(huan)不(bu)多。202两年秦港5500大卡动力(li)机煤平开盘价(jia)(jia)(jia)为(wei)965元/吨，提高(gao)增(zeng)长(zhang)率的(de)降底(di)24.0%；京唐港主焦煤（广东产(chan)）库涨价(jia)(jia)(jia)平开盘价(jia)(jia)(jia)为(wei)2283元/吨，提高(gao)增(zeng)长(zhang)率的(de)降底(di)19.6%。单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)媒碳(tan)项目(mu)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)量升(sheng)特(te)定层次上对冲套利(li)了贸易(yi)市场煤价(jia)(jia)(jia)狂跌(die)不(bu)良影响。供(gong)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)网(wang)项目(mu)：总(zong)成(cheng)本价(jia)(jia)(jia)多的(de)方(fang)便，受(shou)益者(zhe)于煤价(jia)(jia)(jia)选股较(jiao)多，单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)生(sheng)产(chan)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)总(zong)成(cheng)本价(jia)(jia)(jia)升(sheng)幅降底(di)；量多的(de)方(fang)便，单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)发布出(chu)售(shou)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流有所为(wei)促进，前(qian)三(san)第(di)二第(di)一(yi)(yi)月(yue)度(du)单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)共发/售(shou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)283/268亿度(du)，提高(gao)增(zeng)长(zhang)率+0.6%/+0.4%，至(zhi)(zhi)少(shao)Q3发/售(shou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)112/10派件度(du)，提高(gao)+35.1%/+35.2%；市场价(jia)(jia)(jia)格多的(de)方(fang)便，前(qian)三(san)第(di)二第(di)一(yi)(yi)月(yue)度(du)峰值(zhi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)费价(jia)(jia)(jia)格476元/万千瓦时(shi)，提高(gao)增(zeng)长(zhang)率+2.6%。202两年单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)供(gong)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)网(wang)模(mo)块看不(bu)出(chu)促进，单(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)透露6月(yue)起供(gong)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)网(wang)项目(mu)准(zhun)备实现盈利(li)。
全钒液流电池项目加速落地，其他储能项目同步拓展
迅速规(gui)化(hua)全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂(li)(li)(li)锂(li)(li)(li)电(dian)组(zu)全(quan)(quan)制造业链，大(da)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)(gou)储(chu)热(re)(re)改(gai)革创新迅速离(li)地(di)。（1）全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂(li)(li)(li)锂(li)(li)(li)电(dian)组(zu)楼盘(pan)(pan) 建(jian)(jian)造：6月27日一(yi)次300MW大(da)体积(ji)全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂(li)(li)(li)锂(li)(li)(li)电(dian)组(zu)研(yan)发线开始开工(gong)(gong)(gong)仪式建(jian)(jian)造，2月顺(shun)(shun)利搞定桩基(ji)楼盘(pan)(pan) ，不断(duan)2026年(nian)下两年(nian)投运(yun)，这之中1MW做(zuo)实(shi)验的时候研(yan)发线已施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)校正顺(shun)(shun)利搞定，不断(duan)一(yi)次楼盘(pan)(pan) 达生(sheng)完孩(hai)子后的占东北(bei)地(di)区餐(can)饮市场市场占有(you)率10%。显然规(gui)化(hua)沙(sha)洲(zhou)电(dian)气二期(qi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程30MW全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)锂(li)(li)(li)锂(li)(li)(li)电(dian)组(zu)储(chu)热(re)(re)配套调(diao)频教师示(shi)范楼盘(pan)(pan) ，楼盘(pan)(pan) 设汁(zhi)及储(chu)热(re)(re)系(xi)统性主(zhu)主(zhu)设备招标项目本(ben)职工(gong)(gong)(gong)作已顺(shun)(shun)利搞定。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶研(yan)发线建(jian)(jian)造：6月29日汇(hui)宏(hong)矿业机(ji)构(gou)(gou)(gou)一(yi)次3000吨(dun)/年(nian)高(gao)纯五氧化(hua)反应二钒(fan)选冶研(yan)发线开始开工(gong)(gong)(gong)仪式建(jian)(jian)造，不断(duan)2026年(nian)下两年(nian)投运(yun)，达生(sheng)完孩(hai)子后的占东北(bei)地(di)区市场占有(you)率约20%。大(da)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)(gou)共规(gui)化(hua)建(jian)(jian)造2×3000吨(dun)/年(nian)，跟着钒(fan)被慢慢被发掘用，大(da)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)(gou)钒(fan)矿资源量使(shi)用价值凸(tu)现(xian)。
海则滩建设加快，第五次高管增持落地彰显信心
海则滩煤(mei)(mei)业(ye)(ye)楼盘保守估计2026年(nian)(nian)出煤(mei)(mei)。厂家所在(zai)西安(an)亿(yi)(yi)华海则滩煤(mei)(mei)业(ye)(ye)楼盘处(chu)在(zai)西安(an)省榆(yu)横(heng)大矿，煤(mei)(mei)种具体为良好化工(gong)行业(ye)(ye)司(si)用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)及的(de)扭(niu)力煤(mei)(mei)，资(zi)源(yuan)性储量11.4五(wu)亿(yi)(yi)吨，分(fen)(fen)別低能量6500大卡(ka)以(yi)上内容。截止到202两年(nian)(nian)13月31日(ri)整(zheng)体上项目工(gong)程进展比(bi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)方案前提一(yi)月，保守估计2026年(nian)(nian)掌(zhang)握(wo)出煤(mei)(mei)情(qing)况。该楼盘电动(dong)车续(xu)航到1000万桶/年(nian)(nian)良好化工(gong)行业(ye)(ye)司(si)用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)及的(de)扭(niu)力煤(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)娩力量，按近五(wu)年(nian)(nian)行业(ye)(ye)市場(chang)煤(mei)(mei)价估算营业(ye)(ye)收(shou)入来源(yuan)润(run)约410亿(yi)(yi)，按202两年(nian)(nian)行业(ye)(ye)市場(chang)分(fen)(fen)別煤(mei)(mei)价估算营业(ye)(ye)收(shou)入来源(yuan)润(run)约44亿(yi)(yi)。领导层(ceng)很(hen)多(duo)次持股(gu)诠释(shi)信(xin)念。202两年(nian)(nian)4月厂家上市机构的(de)公告核心理念工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)制度(du)(du)员(yuan)第(di)五(wu)个(ge)次持股(gu)厂家股(gu)权工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)方案实行正在(zai)，此次自动(dong)求(qiu)和持股(gu)0.09%，呈现厂家工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)制度(du)(du)层(ceng)对厂家成长 的(de)信(xin)念。
风险点(dian)系统(tong)提(ti)示：煤(mei)价走(zou)低(di)超逾期(qi)；山西煤(mei)炭生产(chan)产(chan)量不(bu)似逾期(qi)；储能电(dian)池发展不(bu)似逾期(qi)。
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