煤电(dian)同增带来工作(zuo)业绩(ji)表(biao)可以(yi)改善，瞩目储电(dian)及(ji)重新命(ming)名矿山，持续(xu)(xu)“定增”信用信用评(ping)级(ji)。大平(ping)台更新2023 年(nian)度审计报告及(ji)2024 年(nian)二季报，2023 年(nian)大平(ping)台进行(xing)开(kai)门营(ying)收301.2 6亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-15.3%；进行(xing)归(gui)母纯利(li)(li)益润(run)22.7 6亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+18.7%。这里面(mian)2023Q4 进行(xing)开(kai)门营(ying)收81.4 6亿(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+1.8%，进行(xing)归(gui)母纯利(li)(li)益润(run)6.4 6亿(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+5.0%。2024Q1大平(ping)台进行(xing)开(kai)门营(ying)收73.2 6亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+3.6%，进行(xing)归(gui)母纯利(li)(li)益润(run)4.7 6亿(yi)(yi)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+11.4%。考(kao)虑(lv)一下(xia)到(dao)2024 年(nian)于今(jin)卖场(chang)煤价下(xia)降，咱们调整(zheng)2024-2025 年(nian)获利(li)(li)预測(ce)并(bing)创(chuang)建2026 年(nian)获利(li)(li)预測(ce)，预估(gu)2024-2026 年(nian)进行(xing)归(gui)母纯利(li)(li)益润(run)24.1/26.0/27.1 6亿(yi)(yi)（2024-2025 年(nian)以(yi)前(qian)数(shu)值25.1/26.6 6亿(yi)(yi)），相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)以(yi)往(wang)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)环(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为0.11/0.12/0.12 元，对(dui)应着现(xian)今(jin)股票价格PE 为12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，大平(ping)台煤电(dian)互替操作(zuo)格局(ju)推(tui)助工作(zuo)业绩(ji)表(biao)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)、重新命(ming)名矿山施工的时候，储电(dian)转(zhuan)型升级(ji)快速发展指的感(gan)触，持续(xu)(xu)“定增”信用信用评(ping)级(ji)。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)立(li)即(ji)减(jian)(jian)(jian)少，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)质产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)各(ge)(ge)自为(wei)240/237 万(wan)(wan)(wan)吨左(zuo)右级(ji)，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)各(ge)(ge)自为(wei)67/62 万(wan)(wan)(wan)吨左(zuo)右级(ji)，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)+8.6%/+7.4%。是因为(wei)2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)那(nei)第三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价上(shang)行(xing)(xing)，2024Q1 企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)新(xin)疆(jiang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭的业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)领域(yu)(yu)利(li)(li)(li)润额(e)为(wei)12.3 亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)-27.4%。企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)隶属(shu)关系(xi)(xi)甘肃(su)省(sheng)亿(yi)(yi)华海则滩露(lu)天煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿(kuang)建设项目座落在甘肃(su)省(sheng)省(sheng)榆横矿(kuang)地(di)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)种最基(ji)本(ben)(ben)为(wei)高(gao)质量(liang)(liang)(liang)石油(you)化工用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)及(ji)动力(li)系(xi)(xi)统煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)，资原(yuan)储(chu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 千(qian)(qian)(qian)万(wan)(wan)(wan)吨，平衡产(chan)(chan)生热能(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大(da)卡综(zong)上(shang)所(suo)述。该(gai)建设项目保守(shou)估计2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三第三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度应有出煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)的条(tiao)件，2027 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)达产(chan)(chan)。利(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)了解，按(an)2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)平衡煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价首次了解可进行(xing)(xing)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)开门(men)纯收入约90 亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元、纯收入约44 亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元。供电(dian)(dian)局(ju)的业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)领域(yu)(yu)：2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)供电(dian)(dian)局(ju)的业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)务(wu)员(yuan)领域(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)升(sheng)本(ben)(ben)减(jian)(jian)(jian)利(li)(li)(li)润额(e)有明显减(jian)(jian)(jian)少，2024Q1 发电(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)立(li)即(ji)高(gao)增。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)获取丹阳中鑫华海把握(wo)权，新(xin)增高(gao)一键(jian)安装系(xi)(xi)统电(dian)(dian)存(cun)储(chu)出水量(liang)(liang)(liang)20 千(qian)(qian)(qian)万(wan)(wan)(wan)瓦，企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)用(yong)(yong)供电(dian)(dian)局(ju)控股企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)总(zong)(zong)一键(jian)安装系(xi)(xi)统电(dian)(dian)存(cun)储(chu)出水量(liang)(liang)(liang)到(dao)918 千(qian)(qian)(qian)万(wan)(wan)(wan)瓦、持股总(zong)(zong)一键(jian)安装系(xi)(xi)统电(dian)(dian)存(cun)储(chu)出水量(liang)(liang)(liang)到(dao)400 千(qian)(qian)(qian)万(wan)(wan)(wan)瓦。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)售卖电(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)各(ge)(ge)自为(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)(yi)kw时，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)价上(shang)行(xing)(xing)让(rang)企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)供电(dian)(dian)局(ju)成本(ben)(ben)费用(yong)(yong)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)-11.2%，利(li)(li)(li)润额(e)率增高(gao)17.6 个月(yue)环比至10.7%，创(chuang)收程度下跌(die)减(jian)(jian)(jian)少。2024Q1企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)售卖电(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)各(ge)(ge)自为(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)(yi)kw时，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)+14.2%/14.2%，他们保守(shou)估计企(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)2024Q1 每月(yue)销售业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)绩去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增速(su)减(jian)(jian)(jian)少最基(ji)本(ben)(ben)起源售卖电(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)有明显的提升(sheng)。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

促(cu)使(shi)布局(ju)图全钒(fan)液流(liu)锂電(dian)池板(ban)全家产(chan)链(lian)，有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)全钒(fan)液流(liu)電(dian)池板(ban)转型(xing)发展促(cu)使(shi)落地页。（1）全钒(fan)液流(liu)锂電(dian)池板(ban)好工程修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)规划(hua)(hua)(hua)：有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)隶属张家港德泰全钒(fan)液流(liu)電(dian)池板(ban)配(pei)备(bei)有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)有(you)(you)限(xian)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)集(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)(tuan)1,000MW 全钒(fan)液流(liu)锂電(dian)池板(ban)全钒(fan)液流(liu)電(dian)池板(ban)配(pei)备(bei)创造(zao)工厂（五(wu)期(qi)300MW）应于2023 年(nian)6 月底施工修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建规划(hua)(hua)(hua)，预估(gu)2024 年(nian)4每季度投(tou)运，预估(gu)五(wu)期(qi)好修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)达产(chan)妇在产(chan)后占我国的市场的市场占有(you)(you)率10%。（2）钒(fan)矿选(xuan)冶制造(zao)线(xian)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)建规划(hua)(hua)(hua)：

平(ping)(ping)台(tai)所属(shu)单位敦(dun)煌(huang)市汇(hui)宏矿业投资(zi)(zi)联合开发有效平(ping)(ping)台(tai)6000 吨/年(nian)高(gao)纯五阳(yang)极防(fang)阳(yang)极氧化(hua)二钒(fan)(fan)选冶制作(zuo)线(xian)（一次(ci)3000 吨/年(nian)）于2023 年(nian)6 月(yue)底开工(gong)(gong)仪式基础(chu)建设，预期(qi)2024 年(nian)一整年(nian)度开工(gong)(gong)。截止阶(jie)段阶(jie)段，该产线(xian)是(shi)我国中国内地单条企业规模最(zui)(zui)好(hao)、自动的(de)化(hua)地步(bu)更高(gao)、自然环境最(zui)(zui)和谐(xie)的(de)石(shi)(shi)煤提钒(fan)(fan)制作(zuo)线(xian)，达生完(wan)孩子后的(de)将占(zhan)用我国中国内地石(shi)(shi)煤提钒(fan)(fan)20%上下市扬(yang)占(zhan)有率(lv)。一起(qi)平(ping)(ping)台(tai)用债权兼并提供了(le)江西省(sheng)石(shi)(shi)台(tai)县(xian)龙岭钒(fan)(fan)矿开采权，增添了(le)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)的(de)矿石(shi)(shi)品位0.93%、复(fu)评验证134.74万桶的(de)五阳(yang)极防(fang)阳(yang)极氧化(hua)二钒(fan)(fan)的(de)资(zi)(zi)源的(de)量，阶(jie)段平(ping)(ping)台(tai)五阳(yang)极防(fang)阳(yang)极氧化(hua)二钒(fan)(fan)的(de)资(zi)(zi)源的(de)量实现158.89 万桶。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。